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Investment Event - Rising bond yields & our views

Government bonds have sold off sharply in recent days, especially US Treasuries. Some relative caution on US equities is justified.
01. Mrz 2021
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    Summary:

    • Government bonds have sold off sharply in recent days, especially US Treasuries
    • This market action has come amid investors pricing in a brighter global economic outlook and inflation concerns
    • There is more scope for US Treasuries to act as a reliable diversifier asset
    • However, other developed market government bonds still look unattractive
    • Intervention by central banks limits the risks of further major ructions in markets
    • Higher government bond yields pose a threat to equity valuations
    • The composition of US equity markets implies some relative caution is justified
    • Cyclical sectors can perform well in this environment despite higher bond yields
    • Commodities can act as an effective hedge against rising inflation risks
    • We think the potential upside to US high yield bonds has diminished
    • We need to monitor the impact of higher US bond yields on the US dollar
    • Prospective returns for Treasuries have improved with increased scope for them to act as an effective diversifier in portfolios
    • The risk of a bond market tantrum, as seen in 2013, is limited by potential intervention by central banks
    • Nevertheless, given current market pricing, higher bond yields pose a threat to equity valuations. Some relative caution on US equities is justified